In the fall of 2021, I spent a semester in New York City, living in Gramercy, right in the heart of mid-Manhattan. I often explored uptown, downtown, and even Brooklyn, though getting around could be frustrating at times. NYC is often called the financial capital of the world and ranks among the highest in GDP per capita–if you exclude island nations, very small populations, or countries rich in oil. Speaking of oil, I see it as a "cheat code," so I don't count it. However, even with abundant resources, many countries have struggled, which shows that effectively navigating resources requires skill. Hence, I can see why some consider resources a curse, and perhaps I shouldn’t underestimate oil-rich countries as simply having gotten lucky.
My experience in NYC made me realize something important: GDP per capita is, in many ways, a misleading measure. It doesn't capture what truly matters for human well-being or societal efficiency. Simon Kuznets, who developed the concept, even warned that it shouldn't be used as a measure of welfare or well-being.
This got me thinking: how should one gauge a country's development or progress? I spent some time reflecting on this, and I feel it's time to put my intuition into writing. I truly believe I've arrived at a better indicator than GDP–or at least, it intuitively feels that way. Haha. I suppose if you want things done well, sometimes you have to do it yourself.
The NYC Reality Check
Why do I say this? Because in NYC, I saw wealth, extravagance, and prestige on Wall Street–but I also saw rampant suffering, homelessness, drug abuse, instability, and fear in other parts of the city. I watched my colleagues, especially women, become fearful after midnight when crossing certain neighborhoods. This was a shock to them and to me, coming from our Abu Dhabi campus, where safety–especially for women–was never a concern.
I realized then that GDP per capita is not the indicator I should be looking at. By economic metrics, you might think NYC has improved over the last 20 years. But if you spoke to mid-Manhattan locals, they would tell you about affordability, the rising cost of living, safety concerns, and infrastructure breaking down. This is exactly what recent mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani capitalized on–and won, rightfully so. I think his heart is in the right place, if you want my opinion.
Rethinking Development Indicators
I gave this GDP question some thought as I traveled to other places and revisited my home country, Bangladesh. After finishing university, there was a four-year gap before I returned to BD, which allowed me to see the development and changes firsthand. I started categorizing development into areas of macro-development that feel intuitive and have third- and fourth-order effects–things that don't show up in GDP or similar metrics. I call them "ripple indicators," because their effects ripple through society in ways far more transformative than GDP per capita.
Nominal GDP per capita is measured in US dollars, but exchange rates don't necessarily reflect local purchasing power or quality of life. Currency values fluctuate based on global capital flows and monetary policy rather than just economic fundamentals. For economies that aren't heavily dependent on US trade, this dollar-denominated measure becomes even less meaningful as a gauge of what people actually experience in their daily lives.
My Optimism About Bangladesh
I have always been really optimistic about Bangladesh–more so than some of my Middle Eastern-, American-, or UK-born Bengali friends. Many of them don't even have a Bangladeshi passport, being second-generation citizens in their respective countries. I do appreciate their perspective, though, as it provides valuable data points to stress-test my intuitions.
Often, when I talk to them about Bangladesh's development, some assume it's a lost cause because they consume the news, which is often negative or misleading. Doomerism is inevitable when good news–or no news–isn't considered newsworthy. A day without an accident is a bad day for headlines, so the incentives are skewed. It's no wonder coverage tends to focus on murder, accidents, or chaos.
My trip to NYC offered a useful comparison point. When I visited Bangladesh in early 2024, I realized that the level of chaos, instability, and uncertainty wasn't so different–in fact, the pain and wealth disparity were somewhat smaller in BD. I also observed that the middle class in Bangladesh is steadily growing stronger, a subtle trend that's easy to miss if you only glance at headlines, conditioned as we are by years of negative news.
This taught me that one shouldn't rely on news to understand a country. YouTube vlogs are far better indicators, especially those created by locals rather than tourists or foreign YouTubers. Through them, you can observe daily life, culture, and the mindset of the people–things GDP or headlines will never show.
The Iran Example
This realization came not just from observing the disparity in NYC between reputation and actual lived experience, but also from a conversation with a lab researcher colleague from Iran. During the height of the protests, when women were rioting for their rights, I asked him–he was in Abu Dhabi at the time–what it was like in Iran. He said, "It's not like the news." When he spoke to his family, they described normal life and didn't notice much difference. He explained that the news media focuses on these events because that's their job–it's the story. But we humans tend to assume the world stops outside the news narrative, when it actually doesn't.
That day, I went home and watched a 100-view Iran vlog by a local YouTuber. It looked so normal. If I hadn't read the news, I wouldn't have known anything was happening. Even the comment section had users posting everyday stuff in Farsi. In that moment, I realized: oh my god, this is normal life.
My Development Framework: Ripple Indicators
So what framework did I come up with? In Bangladesh, I was surprised to see that people had large Facebook groups for video games like League of Legends, and that they were able to play with good ping from Bangladesh. I had played League for eight years, so I understood it as a medium of comparison and could use it to gauge relative development progress. I learned that players in Bangladesh were getting around 80ms ping on Singapore servers, which was stable across most ISPs. For context, I used to get 150ms–and on good days, 120ms–while playing from the UAE on EU West servers, which is still roughly the same today. In 2023, I think they started a Middle East server, giving 20ms ping locally, but many still play on EU servers because of the larger player base.
Why is ping such a meaningful "ripple indicator"? Because it reflects a cascade of infrastructure improvements–stable electricity, high-quality internet connections, proper server networking, subsea cables, packet management by ISPs, and even the quality of citizens' devices like laptops or Wi-Fi. None of this happens through a single government campaign. No minister ever ran a program to "lower League of Legends ping," and if they had, it likely would have failed.
Ripple indicators are paradoxical. They are fragile, ephemeral, and delicate–like butterfly wings. They can only be noticed with sensitivity, curiosity, and attention to the subtleties of life. Trying to optimize or artificially create them often destroys them. They can usually only be studied posthumously or by observing them as they naturally occur. Their beauty lies in their organic emergence.
This is the kind of improvement that people miss. It is subtle, often invisible through conventional metrics, but profound. It requires a childlike sense of wonder and curiosity to recognize and appreciate–a mind open enough to notice the quiet transformations happening around us.
The Makeup Revolution
Another powerful ripple indicator I noticed is the rise in makeup quality and the use of better brands, by both younger and older people. When I visited Bangladesh in 2019, most weddings showed people applying light foundations that didn't match their natural skin, aiming for a pale, almost lifeless tone–because they believed "fairer is better," following Western beauty standards. I've always loved the natural skin tones in Bangladesh, especially the golden-brown hues like rice fields before harvest, which have a warm, life-filled glow.
Now, I see people using high-quality foundations and blending techniques–skills they learn from YouTube tutorials. This seemingly small change signals much more: it reflects improved tech infrastructure, stable internet, better mobile connectivity, and access to international products. People have the free time, money, and resources to watch tutorials, purchase products locally or online, and practice these skills. This points to a rising middle class.
International delivery is another subtle signal. If a country can reliably deliver foreign products, it means roads, addressing systems, and logistics infrastructure are improving. The ripple effects are significant: better connectivity, higher discretionary income, improved digital literacy, and greater productivity. Access to online tutorials doesn't just improve makeup skills–it enhances cooking, crafts, and other personal or professional skills. I even noticed that food at relatives' houses has improved over the past few years, which I attribute in part to exposure to cooking tutorials on social media feeds like Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube Shorts.
The younger generation mastering makeup also creates a positive feedback loop. As they buy more international or local products online, it strengthens the online delivery ecosystem. It demonstrates cultural and emotional progression, as people spend time mastering a craft, building communities, and engaging with influencers. Their confidence and social media presence grow, connecting them to global audiences. They see themselves on par with TikTokers from other countries, gain validation, and become active participants in the global internet ecosystem.
This has more impact on a country's reputation than hosting sports events, marketing campaigns, or even acquiring airlines. The third- and fourth-order effects are transformative: the economy diversifies, foreign investment grows, tourism increases, the diaspora returns for visits, and the country normalizes in the eyes of foreigners. What starts as a subtle cultural shift in makeup becomes a far-reaching signal of societal development.
The Younger Generation
I also noticed that the younger generation is fiercer, which helps explain the recent changes in leadership–it caught me by surprise at first. I visited Bangladesh a few months before the shift in power, the revolution, and it felt unexpected. But in hindsight, I shouldn't have been surprised, the younger generation clearly has the fire in them.
Beyond their drive, I was struck by how strikingly good-looking many of them are. I saw a five-year-old with more developed features than I ever will have. The younger people, especially the girls, have incredibly unique features. If they embraced social media fully, I wouldn't be surprised if they gave Russian women a run for their money. Even girls in villages–which now have much of the city infrastructure–have astonishingly sculpted faces, sharp cheekbones, and minimal facial fat.
It's the middle class that tends to show bloating or double chins, likely due to fast food–similar to trends in the USA. But the younger generation has excellent base features, and now, as they learn proper makeup techniques, there's less adherence to the outdated idea that makeup is just about putting powder on your face to look pale or ghostly. I've always thought that very pale skin looks sickly, healthy faces have color. At weddings I visited recently, I didn't see a single person following that old approach. Which is a stark contrast to my last visit to BD in 2019. Makeup parlors are improving, and clients are learning what fits their style, iterating and experimenting to find what works.
I used to keep parrots and would feed them nuts to bring out colors like red and green. So, jokingly, I suggest girls eat nuts too–maybe it works for humans, who knows! Anyway, Bangladeshi girls naturally exude fertility with their unique skin tone. I call it golden yellow-brown. People sometimes stereotype East Asians as "yellow," but this is a real, vibrant yellow–so bright at times that I had to look away. Haha. I write some silly and wild things, but that's the freedom of writing when you have no readers–you can be completely honest.
This culture of iteration is itself telling: only people with stable lives and some disposable time can engage in hobbies that require trial, error, and refinement–whether cooking, fishing, or mastering makeup. I see this as a strong signal of a rising middle class. As AGI approaches, these iterative, skill-building behaviors will only become more common, shaping society in ways we are just beginning to understand.
Looking Toward the AGI Future
I think about how GCC countries provide extremely high benefits to their citizens, roughly $100,000 USD per year in combined subsidies, services, and transfers, and about $15,000 per month to retirees. Do citizens produce that much value? Not really. They can sustain those payouts because of massive oil profit margins at scale, small citizen populations to support, and access to migrant workers. Migrant workers function as the low-cost, high-output labor force: long hours and low pay generate disproportionate value. In practice, migrants perform the roles that robotics and AGI will eventually take over.
When robotics and AGI scale up, migration patterns will shift. South Asian countries won't need to send workers abroad. GCC won't need migrant workers. Citizens will receive a basic income, though due to our large population it won't match GCC levels. Meanwhile, GCC payouts to its citizens may jump from $10K–$15K per month to $25K–$30K, all without requiring migrant labor. It's a win win for all nations.
But South Asian countries have an advantage: they are large, agriculturally rich, and densely populated, which I think maybe gives way to human talent density, since AGI in everyone's pocket means the outliers will do more. And in a larger population, you have more outliers. But it will take a cultural shift to encourage outliers to actually be outliers. I'm sure there are outliers in North Korea too, but years of conditioning can dampen them. Robotics will amplify our inherent dynamism, making a $10K basic income in Bangladesh potentially more impactful and interesting than a $25K income in the GCC.
Dream on, you might say? But history shows otherwise. Fifty years ago, if you told someone that every company–even small ones–would have an IT department, they would have laughed. When transistors appeared, people dismissed them. Look at the evolution of athletes: today's high schoolers achieve feats that would have seemed impossible decades ago. Progress is not just technological–it's physical, emotional, and cultural.
This is accelerating, and not just for AI, but for humanity itself. Some call it effective accelerationism (E/acc), a movement worth paying attention to. Look at old interviews with Bill Gates or Marc Andreessen: people laughed at the idea that the internet would be useful for ordinary life. Now we see how wrong they were. The same principle applies to AGI: societal transformation is inevitable, and those who prepare for it early will experience its full potential.
My intuition tells me these dynamics will make BD a more interesting place, especially since more people means more encounters, more mixing of humans and silica-based intelligence, and that may give rise to more synchronicities. Also, it has fertile land and rich history–since the Bengal civilization is old and significant–so it has all kinds of intelligence, cryptids, jinns, etc more diverse and varied than the Middle East, which I always thought had fewer life forms due to how harsh conditions are–not just for humans, but for other life energies.
WTF am I talking about haha. I know, I know, let me write, for God's sake.
The Red Pill Phase
Another ripple indicator I noticed is the rise of “red pill” content, which initially threw me off guard. A friend shared a Bangladeshi content creator talking about the “good old days,” when arranged marriages were common. Now, women reportedly ask for high dowries, and the probability of them being virgins is lower. My first reaction was, “Oh wow, this is happening here too.”
What this signals is that men now have more free time. The creator had tens of thousands of viewers, showcasing that many guys as a group are starting to be less essential in the traditional economy, while spending their time creating content, editing videos, or posting on forums like 4chan. They’re being exposed to niche ideas, which some may call brainwashing—but it’s a privilege. Red pill or manosphere content is essentially a “first-world problem”: it reflects a society moving up Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. The price for this cultural shift is figures like Andrew Tate, but it’s a price I’m willing to pay happily.
Personally, I’d rather have guys making video essays on women than catcalling on the streets. Back in 2019, I saw some instances of street harassment, but in 2024, I saw none. Most men were on their phones, probably on TikTok or other platforms, and may even struggle socially or feel anxious about talking to women. The worst-case scenario now might just be staring, but with more tourists and social exposure, I expect this to be a solved problem.
Writing It Into Existence
I also believe that writing this out sends it into the universe and sets off many orders of consequences over time. Every soul is evolving and nothing can stop that process. Hitchens was right when he said that one day someone in North Korea will write their own version of 1984. The human drive toward awareness always pushes forward.
Rape, murder, the things Epstein did, assassinations, loosh farming, authoritarian regimes, none of these forces can overcome the long arc of evolution. Interestingly, the transformation often begins inside the elite class itself. Buddha was a prince who abandoned everything. Lucifer was an angel. Prometheus was a titan who turned against the gods, the very group he belonged to.
I met many children of Pakistani military elites at university. The ruling military class is widely considered corrupt by their citizens. I have also met children of upper-class and elite families from other nations and regions. The ones who had the courage and will to face the truth about the source of their wealth often despised their parents. I expected some of this, since I went to a liberal university where students express themselves by being anti–status quo and challenging authority, but the implications run deeper.
These children resented their parents' manipulation of the system–taking bribes to secure wealth and security for themselves–because, in their view, their own quality of life wasn't much better than that of a normal middle-class family. Yet, paradoxically, they continually benefited from it through generous allowances and privileges. This never bothered me, because I don’t think one can blame children for their parents’ misdeeds. Life is full of contradictions, and maturity lies in the ability to navigate and accept these paradoxes.
That said, there is no justification for earning a livelihood through corruption. Charlie Munger, one of the sharpest thinkers I have read, pointed out that if a crook truly understood the benefits of not being a crook, they would never commit the crime. Real success, and more importantly real contentment, peace, and joy, come from honesty and integrity. A life grounded in integrity eventually leads to a deeper win, even if it does not look that way from the outside, in some cases. In many cases, a crooked life can appear successful from a distance, but the first-person experience rarely matches that appearance.
Moreover, the harm parents cause when they accumulate wealth through crooked means eventually circles back. Hidden guilt corrodes them, whatever you call "good karma" gets wasted, and many traditions describe post-death suffering shaped by one's own conscience. All that corruption ends up being for nothing. Their children may reject them, neglect their graves, and live lavishly without carrying the burden of their misdeeds. All the while their efforts are forgotten. The movie A Bronx Tale captured this well. The corruption even shows up across generations: weakened health, strange misfortunes, accidents, and a kind of decay in spiritual protection in the bloodline.
Even though life can feel unfair, the universe's bookkeeping only reveals its logic at large time scales, and even then it operates through paradoxes that my limited mind can't fully grasp. Buddha didn't talk about merit and karma as a casual metaphor, nor for shit and giggles. Even though Buddhism eventually deconstructs everything, including karma itself, merit and demerit still function as part of the architecture of reality. As long as you are in samsara, you are bound by its laws, just as you are bound by gravity while living on Earth.
But how rigid these laws are, I don't know. How axiomatic the axioms truly are, I don't know either. I'm still figuring it out. This entire thing is a mix of philosophies and observations. I may have rambled, but that's the natural state of an initial draft: a clueless monkey trying to navigate multiple threads of thought at the same time.